Croatian First Football League: Prediction of teams' ranking in the championship (CROSBI ID 634893)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Munđar, D., Šimić, D.
engleski
Croatian First Football League: Prediction of teams' ranking in the championship
Goal of our research was to use simulation modelling for prediction of Croatian Football League seasonal ranking. We have developed a model of number of goals scored by a team in a match based on Poisson distribution. Parameters of the model were estimated from the data on the first part of the season. Final rankings were predicted from 1000 simulation runs of the second part of the season based on the model. For each team the most frequent outcome of the simulation defined the team's rank. The method was validated on Season 2014/15. Prediction was correct for the first five teams. Final ratings in Croatian Football League, Season 2015/16 were predicted from data on the first 21 rounds. This is a feasible method for dynamic prediction of final rankings during the season. Advantage of the method is that in addition to predicting the final ranking it also estimates probabilities of alternative positions.
football ; Poisson distribution ; predictive analytics ; sports analytics
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Podaci o prilogu
211-217.
2016.
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objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Proceedings of the ISCCRO - International Statistical Conference in Croatia
Zagreb: Hrvatsko statističko društvo
Podaci o skupu
International Statistical Conference in Croatia 2016
predavanje
05.05.2016-06.05.2016
Zagreb, Hrvatska