engleski

Characteristics of the future summer temperatures in Croatia obtained from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble

It is of paramount importance to understand changes in summer temperature climatology at regional scales when the global temperature is, beyond any doubt, on the rise. The high temperatures of the present summers as well as more frequent and more severe heat waves and hot temperature extremes can seriously affect human health and activities. In this study, simulations from the six regional climate models (RCMs) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative forced by ERA-Interim are validated by using the E-OBSv11 data. All simulations were made for the 30-year period, 1971-2000, at the two horizontal resolutions (50 km and 12.5 km) over the common EURO-CORDEX domain. In our spatial analysis we focus on the territory of Croatia. Characteristics of summer temperature are described by the number of days with temperature over different thresholds which are determined by absolute and percentile criteria. In addition, the modelled warm spell and heat wave duration indices are compared with gridded E-OBSv11 data and with observations from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) archive. The RCMs’ results are also analysed in the context of the RCP4.5 climate change scenario. The changes of temperature indices are analysed for the two periods: 2011-2040 and 2021-2050. The future climate indices indicate warming in both periods, with more pronounced extremes lasting longer periods. Although temperature changes in the two periods are smaller than those referred to in the IPCC documents for the end of the 21st century, they are by no means negligible.

climate changes; temperature extremes; summer; Croatia

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