engleski

The EU 2020: Understanding the necessity of maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy

Public debt management is perhaps one of the key challenges that has manifested in the aftermath of the 2008 global economic crisis. This article presents key trends in creating fiscal policy in the member-states of the European Union. Using polynomial regressions predictions are made regarding the public debt- to-GDP ratio in 2020. Further analysis of Greece was conducted as the country with the highest projected public debt-to-GDP ratio and Hungary as the country with the lowest projected public debt-to-GDP ratio. Using various quantitative analysis models a statistically significant link between Greek GDP change and public debt-to-GDP change was established, while Hungary displays no such tendencies. Using an output approach to GDP did not reveal any differences in the two economies. An alternative approach clearly indicated that there are significant structural differences between the Greek and Hungarian economy, primarily the fact that Hungary is significantly more dependent upon exports. The article concludes that if substantial changes are not made and the current trends of public debt growth are not reversed, several countries such as Spain, Italy, and Portugal will be faced with the Greek scenario in which they will have a completely unsustainable public debt.

public debt ; the fiscal criteria of Maastricht ; EU ; PIIGS

Rad je produkt suradnje profesora-mentora i studenta-diplomanta Politologické fórum. Trenčín: Trenčianska univerzita Alexandra Dubčeka v Trenčíne.