engleski

The Estimation of Sea Level Rise Impact on Coastal Zones of the Eastern Adriatic Sea

The mean rate of global sea level rise is estimated to be ~3.1 mm yr−1. Those rates are routinely calculated from tide gauge measurements and satellite altimetry. However, regional rates that are driven by local geophysical processes can vary significantly. Thus, the impact of sea level change in the areas that adjoin the oceans should be evaluated through the local perspective. That includes modeling the sea level change with regards to the local vertical land motion and coastal relief combined with specific local sea level change rates. This study aims to model the future sea level change in relation to the coastal specifics of the eastern Adriatic Sea, which mostly covers Croatian coastline. The area of interest covers the northernmost part of the Mediterranean Sea, which contains over 1300 islands and is one of the most indented sea coasts in the world. The study encompasses sea level modeling from tide gauge measurements and satellite altimetry along with its comparison to the Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM) of the proposed area combined with vertical land movement trends. The satellite altimeter data processed include measurements captured by the Topex/Poseidon, Envisat, Jason- 1, Jason-2, (Jason-3), Cryosat-2, and Saral altimetry missions. These data were combined with monthly solutions from the tide gauge measurements. The vulnerability of the coastal areas was evaluated through the analysis of the coastal relief, land cover in the coastal areas and terrain slopes. Finally, an insight into the expected absolute and relative sea level change and its impact throughout the 21st century is provided for the coastal areas of the eastern Adriatic area. The study provides numerical and graphical analyses along with the advantages and disadvantages of the employed modeling method.

Adriatic Sea, Sea Level Rise Impact, Sea Level Modeling, SRTM

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