engleski

Scenario Method in Envisioning New Rural Ways of Life: Key Drivers of Change in Croatian Countryside

The scenario method is used in different areas of planning for portraying alternative futures through key driving forces and uncertainties that influence a system over a given time period. Our research aims at producing a set of alternative future scenarios for Croatian rural areas in 2030 with the goal of encouraging informed and evidence-based public debate on rural futures. Scenarios reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will play out, and what new factors will become important. Recently, several scenario studies specifically targeting rural areas in Europe appeared, both on EU and national levels. On the contrary, to our knowledge, no scenario-based research on rural areas in Croatia has been conducted and only few partial impact analyses have been conducted in recent Croatian agricultural policy. Basic dimensions of scenarios are driving forces and key uncertainties. Driving forces represent key factors, trends, or processes that propel the system forward determining the outcomes. They help define weaknesses, possibilities of development, and optimal policy measures. This paper presents preliminary results identifying key drivers of change in Croatian countryside, based on literature review and qualitative survey of some of the key actors in rural development. Furthermore, as is clearly evident from the place-based approach to development, effects of key drivers are sensitive and relational to local and regional capacities and contexts. Therefore, case studies on local level have been conducted in order to explore local responses toward recognized main drivers of change and to verify them. The case study research area reflects diversity of Croatian regions and different types of rural areas recognized in previous research. Finally, results are contextualized in the framework of constantly changing and new ways of life in the countryside.

scenario method ; rural areas ; key drivers ; Croatia

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