engleski

Stochastic Model for Prediction of Photovoltaic Production Uncertainty Based on Measured Data

This paper deals with the description of a photovoltaic (PV) production prediction by the probability distribution function. Based on experimental on-site measured data of PV production, it is observed that there are different PV power production levels for the same solar irradiation and PV panel temperature. These PV power dispersions (for same irradiance and panel temperature) can be caused by different factors, including non- ideal working of maximal power point tracking (MPPT) devices, device efficiencies, different spectral response of PV panel and PV cell used for the solar irradiance measurement, different temperatures over the PV panel, and others. Due to the stochastic character of these occurrences, they can be very difficult take into account in the deterministic mathematical models usually used for PV power prediction. A probabilistic method for PV power production is proposed based on randomly generated PV production using the probability density function with respect to the solar irradiation.

Curve fitting ; Photovoltaic power production ; Probability density function ; Irradiance ranges ; Uncertainty

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