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Predicting Suitable Habitat for Dalmatian Pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir. /Sch. Bip.) in Croatia

Dalmatian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium /Trevir. / Sch. Bip.) is a thermophilic plant species of the Asteraceae family naturally distributed on the East Adriatic coast and its offshore islands. The size and number of populations in recent years have decreased, prompting the need to determine potential new localities where this species can be found. The aim of this study was to combine all distribution data available for Dalmatian pyrethrum in Croatia and to predict potential localities for future ecogeographical surveys. The data was mainly obtained from field studies conducted in the period from 2006 to 2017, as well as from available scientific literature and herbarium collections. A total of 224 localities of high geographic coordinates precision were recorded, most frequently in garrigue and dry grasslands. MaxEnt software was used to predict ecologically suitable ranges based on 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim data set. The most suitable geographical areas for T. cinerariifolium in Croatia are located along the coastline and on the islands with exception of the most northern part of Istria. The model also revealed some suitable areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Albania. Isothermality and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter had the highest influence on the potential distribution of this species. The information obtained will be used in planning future field studies as well as building prediction models for distribution of the species in the future due to climate change.

suitable habitat modelling ; Tanacetum cinerariifolium ; maxent model ; Balkan Peninsula

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