engleski

Agrometeorological forecast of soil temperatures

Agrometeorological forecast in Croatia is promoted in different mass media – TV, radio and Internet. In addition to standard forecast, specific numerical products for agricultural needs are of great importance. Agrometeorological forecasts are made for the following week using numerical products nine days ahead. Elementary data offered by agrometeorological forecast are expected highest and lowest air temperature values, precipitation levels and mean daily soil temperature usually at depth of 10 cm. Additionally published are data on expected insolation, amount of evaporated water from the free soil surface, relative air moisture and temperature sums. Agrometeorological forecasting provides the most useful information for the mitigation and prevention of the damage that can be caused by unfavourable weather conditions. Prediction of the start of the vegetation is also part of the agrometeorological forecast because air temperature needs to be above some temperature threshold. However, the beginning of the growing season will be delayed if soil temperature is not high enough. For that reason, agrometeorologists analyse soil temperatures at different depths up to depth of 100 cm. Another forecasting tool is analysis of numerically forecasted soil temperatures. Numerical models are related to different uncertainties and limitations. Hence, the crucial part is comparison of measured data and numerically predicted data which is in the hands of agrometeorologists. To improve agrometeorological forecast of soil temperatures, verification of soil temperatures is necessary. The method of making and verification of soil temperatures will be presented on the conference.

agrometeorology ; forecast : models : soil

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