engleski

Projections of heat stress in Croatia in the future climate

Long-lasting extreme high temperatures negatively affect farming and vegetation in general. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to determine projections of heat stress in Croatia in the future climate. The vulnerability due to heat stress is calculated from the maximum daily air temperature projections for the two climatological periods: 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 in comparison with the reference period 1960-1990. The projections are obtained by means of a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) at the points of the grid that are closest to 6 meteorological stations. However, in order to compare the modelled and measured maximum daily air temperature, 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles were analysed as temperature limits for heat stress in the warm part of the year and in further analysis 90th percentile was chosen. Spatial distribution of vulnerability due to heat stress for farming purposes according to the model showed that the 90th percentile of maximum daily temperatures for the warm part of the year is too high criterion for heat stress in the period 1961-1990. For the period 2011-2040 the model projects a further increase in temperature extremes and greater vulnerability due to heat stress considering agriculture in the Dalmatia region. Moreover, by the end of 2070, projections of maximum daily air temperatures obtained by the model suggested further increase in vulnerability across Croatia. However, it should be emphasized that the obtained modelled results should be taken with caution due to underestimations and one should look only for the sign of change. But despite this, since this is the first such study in Croatia, the results are very important. Thus, it can be concluded that the projections of maximum temperature and heat stress periods in altered climatic conditions by 2070 indicate a continuation of the positive trend.

vulnerability due to heat stress, climate projections, RegCM

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