engleski

Phenological fluctuations as a possible signal of climatic changes in the Croatian mountain area

The phenological phases of some perennial plants (forest and fruit trees) and herbaceous plants as well stages of field work operation have been analysed at the mountain station Gospić during the available periods (mainly 1954-2004). The meteorological station Gospić was established in the end of 1872 and has the longest time series of observations in the Croatian mountain area. The Croatian record of minimum temperature of -36.0°C was just measured at Gospić on 4 February 1929. The results of the linear trend analysis indicate a significant earlier flowering for plants which bloom in the second half of April and in May. The progressive analyses presented the beginning of decrease in the trends of flowering phenophases in the late 1980s and trends became significant in the mid 1990s. Those variations are the consequence of a significant increase in winter and spring insolation and extreme air temperature and decrease in number of the freezing days. The significant positive trend of mean annual air pressure and the negative trends of annual precipitation amount and number of days with precipitation over 10 mm indicate the progressive growth in stability of dry weather in the Croatian mountain area.

phenological fluctuations ; linear trend ; the Gospić station

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