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Zbornik radova

Autori: Vučetić, Višnjica
Naslov: Regional scale and downscaled climate projections for Croatia
( Regional scale and downscaled climate projections for Croatia )
Izvornik: Proceedings of Abstract 10th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology / Wang, Huijun ; Zhang, Xuebin (ur.). - Peking : Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , 2007. 131-132.
Skup: 10th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology
Mjesto i datum: Peking, Kina, 20-24.08.2007.
Ključne riječi: Weather generator ; climate change scenarios ; Croatia
( Weather generator ; climate change scenarios ; Croatia )
In order to estimate climate projections for Croatia, the synthetic meteorological series was created by the stochastic weather generator (WG) Met&Roll, which was designed by Dubrovský, both for present climate and different climate change scenarios. The WG parameters were derived from the long time series (1949– 2004) for the Zagreb-Maksimir station in the NW continental part of Croatia. The WG Met&Roll provided the synthetic meteorological series of daily data of global solar radiation (SRAD), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperatures and precipitation amount (PREC). Precipitation occurrence was modelled by the first-order Markov chain model and precipitation amount by the Gamma distribution. The standardised deviations of SRAD, Tmax, and Tmin from their means were modelled by the first-order autoregressive model, separately for the days with and without precipitation (wet and dry days). As the purpose of the weather generator produces data which are statistically similar to the observed data, the results of validation of the WG Met&Roll are presented as follows: - The coefficients of skewness and kurtosis for the synthetic and observed SRAD for dry days and Tmin differ the most from normally distributed variables in winter months ; - Discrepancies between the synthetic and observed deviations of the mean value and standard deviation derived from the SRAD and Tmin values are the greatest in April for wet days ; - A shape parameter of the Gamma distribution for the observed and synthetic series of PREC shows the greatest deviation in August ; - Among all correlations between three variables, only the correlation between SRAD and Tmin is negative ; - Monthly ratios of synthetic and observed standard deviation differ from 1 the most for PREC in October and March and for SRAD in February. The WG Met&Roll preserved well some features of the stochastic structures of daily meteorological series, but the discrepancies were found in reproducing the shape of the distributions of SRAD and PREC. The climate change scenarios were prepared by the pattern scaling technique using the global climate models (ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3 and CSIRO-Mk2. Scaling factors used in this study were for the middle emission scenario and intermediate climate sensitivity (the increase in global mean temperature of 2.5°C) for the years 2050 and 2100. Using the climate change scenarios, the WG Met&Roll was applied to generate a 99-years synthetic meteorological series representing the changed climate. In the current climate the linear trend analysis of four meteorological elements in the NW part of Croatia over the 56-year period showed the significant positive linear trend only in Tmin (0.4°C/10 ys) which started in the late 1980s. In the future climate all climate change scenarios at the end of the 21st century projected an increase: in SRAD 3– 7%, in Tmin around 3°C and in Tmax 3– 4°C. A slightly increase in PREC (2%) has been shown only in the climate change scenario using the global climatic models HadCM3. Others climate scenarios showed a decrease in PREC for 8%. The results from the climate change scenarios lead to an increase in weather stability in the NW continental part of Croatia.
Vrsta sudjelovanja: Poster
Vrsta prezentacije u zborniku: Sažetak
Vrsta recenzije: Međunarodna recenzija
Projekt / tema: 004-1193086-3035
Izvorni jezik: eng
Kategorija: Znanstveni
Znanstvena područja:
Upisao u CROSBI: Višnjica Vučetić (, 5. Vel. 2008. u 09:22 sati

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