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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 325308

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Autori: Rixen, M.; Carta, A.; Grandi, L.; Gualdesi, L.; Ranelli, P.; Book, J.; Martin, P.; Preller, R.; Oddo, P.; Pinardi, N.; Guarnieri, A.; Chiggiato, J.; Carniel, S.; Russo, Aleksandar; Orlić, Mirko; Tudor, Martina; Vandenbulcke, L.; DART Consortium
Naslov: How to reconcile contradicting forecasts in the coastal ocean?
( How to reconcile contradicting forecasts in the coastal ocean? )
Izvornik: Proceedings of the 2008 Ocean Sciences Meeting : From the Watershed to the Global Ocean
Skup: 2008 Ocean Sciences Meeting
Mjesto i datum: Orlando, SAD, 02.-07.03.2008.
Ključne riječi: coastal ocean; forecast; DART
( coastal ocean; forecast; DART )
Sažetak:
Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) aiming at combining optimally different models have been shown to improve significantly atmospheric weather predictions. In the coastal ocean, complex, yet poorly understood dynamics, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data and limited reliability of operational models so far prevented the proper application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state-of-the-art super-ensemble techniques based on dynamic combinations of SEPTR [a trawl-resistant bottom mounted platform transmitting in near real-time] data and a series of eight operational models ran during an experiment in a coastal area in the Adriatic Sea. Kalman filter and Particle filter based methods which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty show increased skill (+10%) as compared to single models. The latter method copes with non Gaussian error statistics and reduces the uncertainty by a further 30%.
Vrsta sudjelovanja: Poster
Vrsta prezentacije u zborniku: Sažetak
Vrsta recenzije: Međunarodna recenzija
Projekt / tema: 004-1193086-3036, 119-1193086-3085
Izvorni jezik: eng
Kategorija: Znanstveni
Znanstvena područja:
Geologija
Upisao u CROSBI: Marko Pavić (mpavic@gfz.hr), 14. Ožu. 2008. u 10:43 sati



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