Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime (CROSBI ID 543123)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa
Podaci o odgovornosti
Rixen, M ; Carta, A ; Grandi V. ; Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P. ; Book, J. ; Martin, P.J. ; Preller, R ; Oddo, P ; Pinardi, N ; Guarnieri, A. ; Chiggiato, J. ; Carniel, S. ; Russo, Aleksandar ; Orlić, Mirko ; Tudor, Martina ; Vandenbulcke, L. ; Lenartz, F. ; DART consortium
engleski
Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime
Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) aimed at combining optimally different models have been shown to improve significantly atmospheric weather predictions. In the coastal ocean, complex, yet poorly understood dynamics, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data at appropriate spatio-temporal resolution and limited reliability of operational models so far prevented the application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state-of-the-art super-ensemble techniques based on dynamic combinations of SEPTR (a trawl-resistant bottom mounted platform transmitting in near real-time) data and a series of eight operational models ran during the DART (Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time) experiment in a coastal area. Kalman filter and particle filter SE-based methods which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty show increased temperature prediction skill (+10%) as compared to single models. The latter method copes with non-Gaussian error statistics and reduces the forecast uncertainty by a further 30%.
Adriatic; super-ensembles; models; prediction
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Podaci o prilogu
51-51.
2008.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts
Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, MIroslava
Zagreb: Geofizički odsjek Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
978-953-6076-18-5
Podaci o skupu
Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology
predavanje
05.11.2008-07.11.2008
Dubrovnik, Hrvatska