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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 449832

Zbornik radova

Autori: Vučetić, Višnjica
Naslov: Modelling of maize production and adaptation to climate change in Croatia
( Modelling of maize production and adaptation to climate change in Croatia )
Izvornik: Extended abstract of International Symposium Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation in Agriculture / Eitzinger, Josef ; Kubu Gerhard (ur.). - Beč : BOKU , 2009. 66-69.
Skup: International Symposium Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation in Agriculture
Mjesto i datum: Beč, Austrija, 22-23.06.2009.
Ključne riječi: maize phenology ; DSSAT model ; shifting sowing data ; climate change impact and adaptation
( maize phenology ; DSSAT model ; shifting sowing data ; climate change impact and adaptation )
Analyzing agricultural systems and modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production is a very important topic, particularly now as food supplies are becoming scarcer in many parts of the world and the need for all people to have sufficient food. As climate changes of different intensity in particular regions were detected there is a need for researching them at national and regional levels. These results help for optimizing agricultural management in order to adapt for current and changing climate and weather conditions. As the maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia and its vegetation period is coincided with the warm season, from May to October, it was the decisive factor in the choice of the crop type for the research of the impact of climatic changes on maize yield in the central Croatia. Last decades (1980–2007) in this region the linear trends of meteorological elements and observed maize phenological phases, and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test indicated a significant increase in mean annual temperature (particularly in spring, winter and summer) and significantly earlier beginning of silk emerged (4 days/10 years), milk ripe (6 days/10 years), wax ripe (9 days/10 years) and harvest (6 days/10 years) which is started in early 1990s. The meteorological data of the Zagreb station (1949-2004), which is situated in the central Croatia, pedological, physiological and genetic data obtained in the field maize experiment in Zagreb 1999 and the DSSAT model, as one of the most applied crop model in the world, have been used for the investigation of maize production in the present climate. The DSSAT 4.0 simulation underestimated the 1999 yield and biomass per hectare by 10% which is a good assessment. The reason for deviation between predicted and observed values is the model sensitivity to extremely warm condition in 1999 during the vegetation period. For the research of the impact of weather conditions on maize yield in the period 1949-2004, the same pedological, crop and soil data were presumed as in the 1999 field experiment. The linear trends of model outputs indicated a significantly earlier onset of anthensis by 1.4 days/10 years and maturity by 4.4 days/10 years which started in mid-1990s. It is also showed a decrease in maize yield by 212 kgha-1/10 years and in biomass by 120 kgha-1/10 years. In order to investigate the sensitivity of DSSAT model at the initial weather and CO2 conditions, the global solar radiation was increased by 7%, minimum temperature by 2°C, maximum temperature by 4°C and CO2 by 330 ppm but precipitation amount was decreased by 8%. It is shown that an increase in minimum and maximum temperature shortens the maize vegetation period and reduces maize yield, while a decrease in precipitation amount also reduces maize yield. An increase in CO2 stimulates the leaf assimilation and maize yield growth, while a solar radiation growth increases evapotranspiration. By applying all above mentioned modifications simultaneously it is shown that the maize yield is similar to a normal value estimated for the period 1949-2004. The prevailing influence comes from an increase in CO2. One of the potential adaptation measures in agriculture is a changing planting date. In the 1999 field experiment the maize planting date was on 3 May. Using the DSSAT model, modified 56-years time series of weather date and double CO2 concentration, the optimal time of planting date for increase in maize yield has been searched to shift its beginning by seven-day steps backward. In average the best result in improving maize yield (increase by 50 kg/ha) was obtained when the planting date is four weeks earlier (on 6 April).
Vrsta sudjelovanja: Pozvano
Vrsta prezentacije u zborniku: Cjeloviti rad (više od 1500 riječi)
Vrsta recenzije: Međunarodna recenzija
Projekt / tema: 004-1193086-3035
Izvorni jezik: eng
Kategorija: Znanstveni
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Upisao u CROSBI: (, 22. Ožu. 2010. u 10:56 sati

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