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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 511290

Časopis

Autori: Vučetić, Višnjica
Naslov: Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate
( Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate )
Izvornik: Journal of agricultural science (0021-8596) 149 (2011), 2; 145-157
Vrsta rada: članak
Ključne riječi: field maize experiment ; DSSAT model ; climate change ; linear trend ; Mann-Kendall test
( field maize experiment ; DSSAT model ; climate change ; linear trend ; Mann-Kendall test )
Sažetak:
Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia, and was selected for research of the effect of climate warming on yields. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer model (DSSAT) is one of the most utilized crop–weather models in the world, and was used in this paper for the investigation of maize growth and production in the present and future climate. The impact of present climate on maize yield was studied using DSSAT 4.0 with meteorological data from the Zagreb–Maksimir station covering the period 1949–2004. Pedological, physiological and genetic data from a 1999 field maize experiment at the same location were added. The location is representative of the continental climate in central Croatia. The linear trends of model outputs and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test indicate that the beginning of silking has advanced significantly by 1•4 days/decade since the mid-1990s, and maturity by 4•5 days/decade. It also shows a decrease in biomass by 122 kg/ha and in maize yield by 216 kg/ha in 10 years. Estimates of the sensitivity of maize growth and yield in future climates were made by changing the initial weather and CO2 conditions of the DSSAT 4.0 model according to the different climatic scenarios for Croatia at the end of the 21st century. Changed climate suggests increases in global solar radiation, minimal temperature and maximal temperature (×1•07, 2 and 4°C, respectively), but a decrease in the amount of precipitation (×0•92), compared with weather data from the period 1949–2004. The reduction of maize yield was caused by the increase in minimal and maximal temperature and the decrease in precipitation amount, related to the present climate, is 6, 12 and 3%, respectively. A doubling of CO2 concentration stimulates leaf assimilation, but maize yield is only 1% higher, while global solar radiation growth by 7% increases evapotranspiration by 3%. Simultaneous application of all these climate changes suggested that the maize growth period would shorten by c. 1 month and maize yield would decrease by 9%, with the main reason for maize yield reduction in Croatia being due to extremely warm conditions in the future climate.
Projekt / tema: 004-1193086-3035
Izvorni jezik: eng
Rad je indeksiran u
bazama podataka:
Current Contents Connect (CCC)
Scopus
SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXP) (sastavni dio Web of Science Core Collectiona)
Kategorija: Znanstveni
Znanstvena područja:
Geofizika
URL Internet adrese: http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FAGS%2FAGS149_02%2FS0021859610000808a.pdf&code=c1b1c2322f55731b91802b67ab63f032
http://http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8024963&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0021859610000808
Broj citata:
Altmetric:
DOI: 10.1017/S0021859610000808
URL cjelovitog teksta:
Google Scholar: Modelling of maize production in Croatia: present and future climate
Upisao u CROSBI: vvucetic@dhz.hr (vvucetic@dhz.hr), 27. Tra. 2011. u 12:01 sati



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