engleski

Advanced System Analysis Using Scenario Approach – the Case Study of Croatia

Even a few years after the national Energy Strategy has been passed, direction for development of the Croatian energy system remains a booming topic. Croatian energy system is currently highly import-dependent and obligations toward renewable energy sources implementation, as well as limited energy sources available, need to be considered. This paper studies eight scenarios - three proposed by the Strategy, one proposed by the Indicative medium-term development plan of Croatia’s TSO, and four alternative scenarios that propose extensive construction of hydro, wind and solar power plants in Croatia. Calculations have been conducted in the EnergyPLAN model based on modelled long term energy demand predictions, with 2009 as the base year and a scope ranging until the year 2030. Each of the eight proposed scenarios is observed trough three sub-scenarios, describing various hydrological conditions while analyzing production, costs, CO2 emissions and other relevant parameters. The results of this study can be used as a reference for further development of the Croatian energy system.

EnergyPLAN; Croatia; Import of Electricity; National Energy Strategy; Critical Excess Electricity Production (CEEP)

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