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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 676723

Časopis

Autori: Erceg, Nikola; Galić, Zvonimir
Naslov: Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches
Izvornik: Journal of economic psychology (0167-4870) 42 (2014); 52-62
Vrsta rada: članak
Ključne riječi: overconfidence bias; conjunction fallacy; betting; probability; frequency
Sažetak:
The aim of this study was to explore the occurrence of the overconfidence bias and the conjunction fallacy in betting behavior among frequent and sporadic bettors and to test whether it was influenced by the task format (probability vs. frequencies). Frequent bettors (N = 67) and sporadic bettors (N = 63) estimated whether the bets on football games presented to them via an on-line questionnaire would be successful. The bets consisted of singles (one match outcomes) and conjunctions (two matches outcomes), and were presented either in probability or frequency terms. Both frequent and sporadic bettors showed similar levels of the overconfidence bias. However, the frequent bettors made the conjunction fallacy more often than the sporadic bettors. The presentation of the task in the frequency terms significantly reduced the overconfidence bias in comparison to the evaluations in probability terms, but left the conjunction fallacy unaffected.
Projekt / tema: 130-0000000-3282
Izvorni jezik: ENG
Rad je indeksiran u
bazama podataka:
Current Contents Connect (CCC)

Scopus
SCI-EXP, SSCI i/ili A&HCI
Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) (sastavni dio Web of Science Core Collectiona)
Kategorija: Znanstveni
Znanstvena područja:
Psihologija
URL Internet adrese: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487013001396
Broj citata:
Altmetric:
DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2013.12.003
URL cjelovitog teksta:
Google Scholar: Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches
Upisao u CROSBI: Maja Parmač Kovačić (mparmac@ffzg.hr), 9. Sij. 2014. u 11:03 sati



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