engleski

Evaluation of near-surface wind characteristics obtained by an ensemble of RCM simulations over the Pannonian region

This study focuses on the evaluation of the characteristics of near-surface wind obtained from the latest generation of the regional climate models (RCMs). While model domains include all of Europe, an area of particular interest is the Pannonian Plain. Bordered by the Alps in the northwest, the Dinaric Alps in the southwest and by the Carpathians in northeastern direction, the Pannonian Basin is divided into two parts by the Danube river. South of the Danube, which includes the Croatian part of the Pannonian Plain, sporadic mountains have "insular" character with altitudes up to 1000 m above sea level contributing to the area complexity. Daily climate model data for near- surface (i.e. 10 m) wind were taken from the EURO-CORDEX archive (CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17, DMI- HIRHAM5, IPSL- INERIS-WRF331F, KNMI-RACMO22E, SMHI-RCA4, DHMZ- RegCM4) and compared against surface station observations. All simulations were forced by ERA- Interim reanalysis. For the evaluation, data from 1996-2008 period have been used on account of the length of available observed time series. Various methodological aspects related to the interpolation techniques when comparing RCMs and observations (or RCMs at two different resolutions) are discussed. The study reveals strong sensitivity of the simulated wind flow and wind pattern to the RCM horizontal resolution (12.5 km vs. 50 km). Furthermore, a measures- oriented approach (e.g. mean-square error or Brier skill score) and a distributions- oriented approach (e.g. Perkins skill score) disclosed both season and location dependence.

Pannonian basin; Regional climate models; Skill scores

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