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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 803587

Časopis

Autori: Brajša, Roman; Verbanac, Giuliana; Sudar, Davor; Skokić, Ivica; Žic, Tomislav; Hanslmeier, A.; Woehl, H.; Roth, M.; Mursula, K.; Zhang, L.
Naslov: A comparison between the observed and predicted amplitude of the 24th Solar cycle
( A comparison between the observed and predicted amplitude of the 24th Solar cycle )
Izvornik: Central European astrophysical bulletin (1845-8319) 39 (2015); 135-144
Vrsta rada: članak
Ključne riječi: Solar cycle prediction
( Solar cycle prediction )
Sažetak:
In present work we compared the measured and predicted amplitudes of the 24th solar cycle. The modified minimum–maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of methods, was applied to the smoothed monthly sunspot number values (the “old” data set, used before the change introduced on July 1st, 2015). The maximum of the 24th solar cycle occurred in April 2014 with an amplitude of R = 82 and this observed value is very close to our mean predicted value R = 83. The maximum was significantly weaker than in several previous cycles. Additionally, a curious solar activity minimum of 2008, between the solar cycles no. 23 and no. 24 was analysed, as well as the shape of the maximum profile. The maximum of the 24th solar cycle had a double-peak, the second one being higher than the first one. The obtained results represent a strong indication that the minimum–maximum method is a reliable tool for the solar cycle prediction, using data available already 3 years before the preceding minimum of solar activity.
Projekt / tema: HRZZ-IP-2013-11-6212
Izvorni jezik: eng
Kategorija: Znanstveni
Znanstvena područja:
Fizika,Geologija
Puni text rada: 803587.Brajsa2015CEAB_39_135.pdf (tekst priložen 1. Ožu. 2016. u 10:34 sati)
URL Internet adrese: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CEAB...39..135B
URL cjelovitog teksta:
Google Scholar: A comparison between the observed and predicted amplitude of the 24th Solar cycle
Upisao u CROSBI: Davor Sudar (dsudar@geof.hr), 1. Ožu. 2016. u 10:34 sati



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