engleski

Conflict with conjunctions: Metacognition and response times in the Linda problem

Dual process theories of decision making distinguish Type 1 and Type 2 processes. Type 1 processes are fast, intuitive and commonly based on heuristics while Type 2 processes are slower, requiring analytical thinking. Pennycook et al. (2015) suggest a three-stage model of dual processing. Based on this model, Stage 2 conflict monitoring is crucial for determining whether Type 2 processing will be active. The level of conflict is expected to influence decision times and judgements of confidence for given responses. The goal of this study was to test the model using 4 versions of the Linda problem with varying levels of induced conflict. By varying the probability of presented options, it was possible to manipulate theoretical levels of conflict between answers and the given description. During the experiment participants (N=31) were presented with a short description of a person after which they had to choose the more probable of two options. The options were: a single situation, and a conjunction of situations which included the first one. As in the classic Linda problem the answer containing the conjunction was always less probable. However, it was predicted that participants would choose the answer which is more representative of the described person. The model predicts that lower levels of conflict would be associated with shorter decision times and higher metacognitive judgments of confidence. Results show participants reacted faster, and gave higher confidence judgements at lower levels of conflict. In addition, the participants were more likely to choose conjunctions when they were in line with descriptions, and single answers when the conjunctions were not representative. These results confirm predictions based on the model, and previous research on the Linda problem.

Linda problem; metacognition; conjunction fallacy; representativeness heuristic

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