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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 87487

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Autori: Šinik, Nadežda; Pandžić, Krešo; Marki, Antun; Pasarić, Miroslava
Naslov: Singular spectrum analysis of local air temperature series for Zagreb, Croatia
( Singular spectrum analysis of local air temperature series for Zagreb, Croatia )
Izvornik: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 4 (CD-Rom) / x (ur.). - Nice, France : EGS , 2002. Section NP4 (EGS02-A-03458).
Skup: XXVII General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society
Mjesto i datum: Nica, Francuska, 21-26.04.2002.
Ključne riječi: Singular spectrum analysis; pricipal components; long-time temperature series; climatic fluctuations
( Singular spectrum analysis; pricipal components; long-time temperature series; climatic fluctuations ; )
Sažetak:
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) has been applied to the series of mean annual temperature for the period 1862-1999 at Zagreb, Croatia. It has been proven to be very efficient in extracting from the series those parts which can be treated as deterministic ones and which display at Zagreb about 27% of total variance. Series reconstruction by means of the first principal component indicates an increasing trend during the first half of 20th century which stops around 1940ies and which is here assumed to belong to long term natural climatic fluctuation. During the last decade of the 20th century a new increase of the tempretaure might be connected with anthropogenic influences. The second principal component might illustrate a negative feed-back mechanism which caused the abeyance of the temperature increase fifty years ago. The third and fourth principal components complete the deterministic group. Their oscilatory behaviour during second half of the last century indicates an influence of the middlatitudes atmospheric general circulation (AGC) which possibly has changed from a dominant zonal regime in the 19th century to a prevailing wave regime which governs the weather and climate at present. The phase portrait of the mentioned components indicates the possible existence of a climate attractor. A superposition of small scale variations which make 73% of the total variance of temperature at Zagreb efficiently ovelap the basic climatic features, revealed by the use of SSA.
Vrsta sudjelovanja: Predavanje
Vrsta prezentacije u zborniku: Sažetak
Vrsta recenzije: Međunarodna recenzija
Projekt / tema: 119299
Izvorni jezik: eng
Kategorija: Znanstveni
Znanstvena područja:
Geologija



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